Daily metals

What's Moving Markets?Global equities were weaker, as investors digested earnings and CPI data. The Dec CPI report showed both mom and YoY core inflation coming in below expectations (headline CPI held at 2.7% while core CPI remained at 2.6% the lowest since 2021), reinforcing market bets on two Fed rate cuts this year, with the probability of a first reduction in Apr edging higher following the data. Geopolitical tensions helped push oil prices higher. Gold gained amid concerns about Fed independence as global central bankers swing behind Jerome Powell. Industrial metals were also stronger as supply shortages persist. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries were steady at 4.18%, while the USD index was steady at 99.2.Rio Tinto has engaged JPMorgan and two other advisers on its potential acquisition of Glencore, a deal that could create the world’s largest miner worth over $200bn. The other banks Rio Tinto has engaged are Evercore and Australian financial services group Macquarie. The roles are highly prized as bankers jostle for a share of potentially more than $100mn in advisory fees that such a deal could generate.Precious metals were buoyed after US inflation data signalled softer price pressures and reduced the near term risk of tighter policy, but profit-taking eroded earlier gains. Gold steadied below the $4,600 mark, while silver is meeting resistance around $86. Meanwhile, CME Group will shift margining for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures to a percentage of notional value rather than a fixed dollar amount, with silver set at 9%, after extreme price moves and volatility forced repeated margin changes. Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $10bn (~77t) in Dec. This lifted 2025 net inflows to $89bn, the highest year on record. In tonnage terms, 2025 demand totalled 801t, the second highest year on record after 2020.Base metals were steady but remain subject to flow-driven swings, as volatility climbs in line with declining liquidity. Implied volatility has begun to catch up with realised, consistent with tighter liquidity and a market demanding greater premium. This typically points to wider intraday ranges. Copper pared gains after surging close to a record high, supported by a weaker USD, supply concerns, and the hoarding of copper in the US ahead of a decision on import tariffs, which has left the rest of the world comparatively short of material. Due to the impact of Trump's tariffs, the all-in cost of aluminium in America has surged to a record high well above $5,000/t (LME price + US Midwest premium). The impact would soon be felt on anything made with aluminium -- including beer cans. Nickel remained supported, as the market grapples with supply side issues. Last week, Indonesia flagged plans to reduce production this year to improve the balance of global supply and demand. Lower quotas for mining companies could help rebalance a market impacted by a surge in supply from Indonesia.Iron ore prices reflect signs of strong demand in China. Steelmakers are rebuilding inventories ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in Feb when activity typically slows. Supply conditions also remain supportive, with industry data showing slower shipments from Australia and Brazil last week and iron ore inventories at Chinese steel mills running below last year’s levels. However, imported inventories at Chinese ports rose for a sixth straight week to the highest level since Apr 2022, according to Shanghai Steelhome data.