Metals Daily

This morningBase metals opened firmer. Copper leads at $13,172/t (3m), up 1.3% from yesterday's close. Tin posted notable gains at $47,765/t. Aluminium edged up 0.9% to $3,164/t, while nickel, zinc and lead showed modest moves under 0.3%.Market overviewGlobal equities moved higher against fresh attacks on the Fed. The DOJ subpoenaed Chairman Powell on criminal charges over the Fed's headquarters restoration—Powell noted the charges aim to oust him over FOMC policy decisions. Treasuries steady at 4.18%, USD index at 98.9. The J.P. Morgan global manufacturing PMI slipped 0.3 points to 50.9 in December, suggesting modest growth but fading momentum.Base metals: supply tightness dominatesCopper remains supported by a persistent U.S. delivery premium as markets price potential tariffs, draining China's bonded warehouses. Recent disruptions at Grasberg underscore supply vulnerability. Rio Tinto's talks to acquire Glencore could rank among the ten biggest M&A deals ever and spur sector-wide consolidation.Aluminium premia in the U.S. have hit record highs as tight supply amplifies tariff impacts. China's output is nearing its self-imposed 45Mt cap, constraining growth.Nickel trades on headlines. Indonesia—supplying two-thirds of global nickel—has signalled major 2026 cuts: revised quotas, bans on new NPI smelters and HPAL plants, plus tighter enforcement. Vale Indonesia has halted mining pending 2026 work plan approval.Iron ore prices reflect strong China demand as steelmakers rebuild inventories ahead of Lunar New Year, supported by slower Australian and Brazilian shipments.Precious metals: records on Fed independence fearsGold surged past $4,600/oz and silver above $84/oz after the DOJ subpoenas fuelled concerns about central bank independence and US bond safety. Iran unrest adds to safe-haven demand. The PBoC added 1 tonne in December, bringing 2025 purchases to 27 tonnes (total holdings: 2,306t). Platinum remains in deficit but technicals look stretched—RSI at record overbought, 44% above its 200-day MA.Rare earths: China–Japan tensions escalateChina banned dual-use exports to Japan on January 6, with restrictions now extending to civilian rare earth shipments. Japan relies on China for 60% of rare earth imports. G7 allies are accelerating diversification efforts.What to watchCopper: U.S. premium dynamics; Rio–Glencore deal progressAluminium: U.S. premia; China's 45Mt capNickel: Indonesia quota decisionsFX: Fed-related shocksRare earths: export control escalationPlatinum: correction risk from stretched technicals