Theme of the Day: Global manufacturing growth remains lukewarm at end of 2025

Key findings show that output growth eases slightly as new order intakes stagnate. Trend in employment stabilises. Input cost and output price inflation accelerate.

The global manufacturing sector closed out 2025 on a subdued footing, as output growth eased and both new order inflows and employment levels were unchanged. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 50.4 in Dec, down from 50.5 in Nov but above the neutral mark of 50.0 for the fifth consecutive month. Two of the PMI components (output and suppliers' delivery times) were at levels consistent with expansion, two were signalling no change (new orders and employment) and stocks of purchases declined.

Manufacturing output rose for the fifth successive month in Dec. Expansions were seen across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors, the fourth time in the past five months that concurrent growth has been registered. Rates of increase were broadly similar across all three industries, representing mild growth decelerations in the first two and a return to expansion at investment goods producers.

Dec saw no change in the level of new business placed with global manufacturers, halting a four-month sequence of mild expansion. The latest decrease was centred on the intermediate goods industry as both the consumer and investment goods categories registered expansions. Among the larger industrial nations, China, India, and the UK signalled increases, whereas the US, Japan and the euro area saw new business decline.

Part of the latest decrease in total new work reflected the ongoing downturn in international trade volumes. New export business decreased for the ninth month in a row and at a slightly quicker pace than in Nov. All three of the sub-sectors covered by the survey saw new export orders contract.

The outlook for the global manufacturing sector remained mildly positive in Dec. Business optimism held steady at Nov's five-month high despite remaining below the (rolling) survey average for the twenty-first successive month.

Staffing levels were unchanged in Dec, as jobs growth in nations such as the US, Japan and India offset cuts in China, the euro area and the UK (among others). There were signs that current capacity was becoming more consistent with current requirements, as backlogs of work decreased only slightly and to the least marked extent during the current three-and-a-half-year sequence of decline.

On the prices front, rates of inflation in input costs and output charges picked up in Dec. That said, increases in both price measures remained below the respective long-run averages.